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Position:BCAA News»Can Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei achieve their PM2.5 target by 2017

Can Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei achieve their PM2.5 target by 2017Scientific Assessment Showed Enhanced Policy Would Enable Jing-Jin-Ji to Achieve 2017 TargetsPost date: 2014-10-15

Beijing, September 25, 2014: Clean Air Alliance of China and Tsinghua University jointly released Assessment of the potential for air quality improvements in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under China's new air pollution action plan (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") noted that the full implementation of existing mitigation measures in 2017, will decrease the annual average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei significantly (26%, 19%, 15% respectively). This reflects the strategy proposed by the "State Council Clean Air Action Plan" is very effective, with focus on both the restructuring and the end-of-pipe treatment. The report also pointed out that if extra strengthened air pollution control measures are set out and implemented, Jing-Jin-Ji is expected to achieved the 2017 air quality improvement target proposed in the Action Plan.

The "Report" is funded by the Energy Foundation, for the first time give quantitative assessment on existing air pollution control measures in Beijing, Tianjin. The research team build base year emissions source inventory , combine it with regional air quality model (CMAQ) to do air quality modeling and verification; then do quantitative analysis of the emission reduction  measures in local action plan series; Finally, the target year air quality was modeled  to assess air quality improvement in 2017. "If we fully implement the existing mitigation policies in 2017, will bring a significant improvement in the concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing, Tianjin region," project leader, Tsinghua University Professor He Kebin said: "Among the existing measures to reduce the regional air pollution, SO2 emission reduction and primary PM2.5 reduction measures have bigger contribution.  Among them, energy restructuring, power plants and coal-fired boiler desulfurization and denigration, upgrading the dust capture system of dust, steel, cement and industrial furnace have the most prominent effect. "

Before and after the announcement of the "Action Plan", Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei government formulated and promulgated their own implementation plan. During the process of the implementation, the MEP, as well as the government of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are both very concerned about the policy effect, bringing new policies and measures to strengthen the adjustment. Hebei has made clear that they are developing enhance control programs in order to ensure to meet the 2017 PM2.5 improvement goals. To support further work in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region, the report recommends ten enhanced pollution control measures, and so set up the enhance reduction scenarios. The results show that, combined with existing measures and enhanced emission reduction policies, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei can get primary PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOCs and other pollutants reduction on the basis of 2012 of 35%, 40%, 40%, 20% and 30%, respectively. Air quality modeling results show that, if full implement all existing measures and the ten strengthen measures, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei can meet the 2017 target even under unfavorable weather conditions, the annual PM2.5 concentrations will decrease 31%, 26% and 26%, respectively, exceeding the  "Action Plan" target. "Currently the control measures for ammonia in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region is not clear yet, the efforts to control VOCs are also relatively weak, we need to strengthen those reductions." Professor He Kebin said, "Many factors affect air quality. The surrounding region air quality improvement, changes in weather conditions will all affect air quality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. According to our calculations, whether the surrounding areas can simultaneously achieve "Action Plan" target will bring 2 to 4 percent impact to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region air quality improvement. Therefore, we need to strengthen regional joint prevention and control of air pollution, to make sure the surrounding area also making improvements.” For meteorological factors, Professor He Kebin said:" We have assume the worst scenario, even the weather in 2017 is extremely bad, we should reach the Action Plan target , that is why our study used the 2013 meteorological field simulation of air quality in 2017 . "

According to Professor He Kebin, during the process of conducting this research, they already communicate the preliminary results with the relevant government departments, and officials mostly recognized the need for such scientific analysis, which would enable them to be more confident on achieving the required air quality improvement goals. The research group also works with Hebei Province to develop programs to strengthen air pollution control to ensure Hebei to reach air quality improvement targets.

Tonny Xie, director of the Clean Air Alliance of China Secretariat said:" Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should carried out their Air Quality Attainment Planning (AQAP) as soon as possible. The emission inventory of this study was in large-scale, local government can establish a more accurate emission inventory through AQAP. Also the application of air quality models in AQAP will give quantified analysis of the effect of control measures, and weather them can achieve local air quality improvement goals in 2017, while developing the overall strategy and policy roadmap to achieve the national air quality standards. "